The escalating war in the Middle East offers a classic political test for Vice President Kamala Harris: Would she handle the conflict differently from President Joe Biden? How? And how far does she want to go in staking out a foreign policy that runs independent of his?
The first obvious question is: Why would she want to squeeze any daylight between herself and the president’s approach to the war in Gaza? On a political level, that’s easily answered: Big majorities of Democrats and independents disapprove of Israel’s military campaign.
- In electoral terms, Harris’ final analysis may rest on how the issue plays in the handful of true battleground states that will decide the election, as well as the tradeoffs between pleasing some voters and alienating others.
- Arab American anger at Biden’s embrace of Israel had cost him critical support in states like Michigan. But Harris, who seems to be doing better there, also has to keep in mind the staunchly pro-Israel voters inside her party.
A Big Escalation
The question of how the new presumptive Democratic nominee would do on the Middle East gained fresh urgency over the weekend after Israeli authorities said a rocket fired by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon struck a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
The attack fanned fears that conflict in the region – which has already widened past where the White House hoped to contain it – could escalate even further.
Center Stage on Gaza
Harris has enjoyed considerable prominence on foreign policy since she and Biden took office in January 2021, often attending the presidential daily intelligence brief, regularly joining his meetings with world leaders, and holding her own calls and meetings with other heads of state or government.
Still, the last week or so has been notable for how prominent a public role she has taken on the current conflict in the Middle East.
Both Harris and Biden met separately Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The offices of the president and vice president each released a “readout” – a short, written summary of their talks. But Harris went further, giving public remarks announced just minutes before she delivered them.
- “Israel has a right to defend itself, and how it does so matters,” she told reporters.
- Harris said Hamas – which invaded Israel on Oct. 7, killing hundreds of civilians and military personnel and taking hundreds more hostage, leading to a devastating response by Israel in
- Gaza – “is a brutal terrorist organization” that “triggered this war.”
“I also expressed with the prime minister my serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza, including the death of far too many innocent civilians,” she said. “And I made clear my serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation there, with over 2 million people facing high levels of food insecurity and half a million people facing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity.”
- Pointing to a Biden-backed cease-fire plan, Harris said: “I just told Prime Minister Netanyahu, it is time to get this deal done.”
- “To everyone who has been calling for a cease-fire and to everyone who yearns for peace, I see you and I hear you,” she said.
“I.”
Not “the United States wants.” Not “this administration has serious concerns.” It’s easy to overread rhetoric like this. But Harris is the one who spoke publicly, not Biden.
One Expert’s Analysis
“Kamala Harris’ remarks after meeting with Bibi is the speech Biden should have given months ago,” says former State Department official Aaron David Miller, who has advised Republican and Democratic administrations on the Middle East.
She was “strongly pro-Israel and anti-Hamas, but with a sensitivity toward Palestinian suffering and a measure of daylight on some of Israel’s tactics that carried great credibility,” Miller says. “Her tone and empathy for the traumas of both peoples is not just credible but appealing.”
His Agenda Is Her Agenda. But.
Harris’ aides have always emphasized to me that the president’s agenda is her agenda. And while Biden is broadly unpopular, no one expects her to try to make a clean break with their shared record. Still, she has the opportunity to redefine herself with less than 100 days before Election Day.
“She has a second chance to make a first impression,” says a former adviser to former Vice President Al Gore, who faced his own dilemma in the 2000 race.
President Bill Clinton’s job approval numbers were solid. But his personal ratings sagged in the aftermath of the scandal over his affair with a former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. And Gore’s campaign saw that reflected in polling of swing voters.
“That was the thing that was moving numbers,” according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. So Gore didn’t repudiate his shared record with Clinton but kept some distance from his boss.
No one expects Harris to break sharply with the substance of Biden’s approach to Gaza. She has not come out against continued military aid to Israel, including an $18 billion package the administration had sought to push through Congress.
But her public messaging bears close watch since, come January 2025, she may be able to turn word into deed.
